世界科技研究与发展 ›› 2025, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (S2): 1-13.doi: 10.16507/j.issn.1006-6055.2025.10.102 cstr: 32308.14.1006-6055.2025.10.102

• 科技战略与决策 • 上一篇    下一篇

集成电路产业后发经济体追赶路径研究

宋怡然1,2 吕佳龄2,1 王颖2,1   

  1. 1.中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院;2.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院
  • 出版日期:2025-12-23 发布日期:2025-12-23
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院学部咨询评议综合项目“面向发展新质生产力的科研组织形态研究”(3-ZXB2025004)

Research on the Catchingup Pathways of Latecomer Economies in the Integrated Circuit Industry*

SONG Yiran1,2 LYU Jialing2,1 WANG Ying2,1   

  1. 1.School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences; 2.Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  • Online:2025-12-23 Published:2025-12-23

摘要: 在全球科技竞争加剧与地缘政治高度敏感化的背景下,集成电路产业(IC)已成为国家经济安全与科技自主的战略基石。其高技术累积、强路径依赖与全链条协同特性,叠加外部技术封锁、头部企业锁定与寡头型市场结构,使后发经济体难以通过低价竞争或单点突破进入全球市场。对此,本文基于新熊彼特理论与创新生态系统分析框架,首先,系统研判中国IC产业的发展现状、结构性瓶颈与后发追赶的阶段性战略目标;其次,采用比较案例方法,梳理日本、韩国等在芯片开发平台构建、技术经验积累与创新组织上的差异化路径。研究表明,IC产业后发追赶并非线性模仿过程,而是受技术演化、市场进入条件与制度环境影响的阶段性、非线性跃迁;最后,提出中国由“跟随”迈向“追赶”的三类可行路径:以价值链关键环节自主可控为核心的技术突破;面向细分赛道与系统级解决方案的差异化竞争;以制度基础与组织能力为支撑的创新生态系统构建。

关键词: 集成电路;创新战略;后发追赶;创新生态系统;IC

Abstract: Against the backdrop of intensifying global technological competition and heightened geopolitical sensitivity, the integrated circuit (IC) industry has become a strategic cornerstone of national economic security and technological sovereignty. Its characteristics (high cumulative technological intensity, strong path dependence, and whole-of-chain coordination) together with external technological embargoes, incumbent lock-in, and an oligopolistic market structure, make it difficult for latecomer economies to enter global markets through low-cost competition or single-point breakthroughs. Drawing on Neo-Schumpeterian theory and an innovation-ecosystem analytical framework ,this paper first provides a systematic assessment of the current status of China’s IC industry, its structural bottlenecks, and the stage-specific strategic objectives of latecomer catch-up; second, it employs a comparative case approach to trace the differentiated pathways taken by Japan, Korea, et al.in building chip development platforms, accumulating technological experience, and organizing innovation. The findings indicate that catch-up in the IC industry is not a linear process of imitation but involves stage-wise, nonlinear transitions shaped by technological evolution, market-entry conditions, and the institutional environment. Finally,the paper proposes three feasible pathways for China to move from “following” to “catching up”:1) technology breakthroughs centered on autonomous control of critical links in the value chain; 2) differentiated competition oriented toward niche segments and system-level solutions; 3) innovation-ecosystem building supported by robust institutional foundations and organizational capabilities.

Key words: Integrated Circuit; Innovation Strategy; Catching-up; Innovation Ecosystem; IC