世界科技研究与发展 ›› 2023, Vol. 45 ›› Issue (1): 51-62.doi: 10.16507/j.issn.1006-6055.2022.05.003

• 科技态势与趋势 • 上一篇    下一篇

中美云计算领域专利技术主题发展态势预测研究

张彪 董坤 高道斌 吴红   

  1. 山东理工大学信息管理研究院,淄博255049
  • 出版日期:2023-02-25 发布日期:2023-03-13
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金“知识流动视角下科技成果转化潜在路径预测与选择研究”(20CTQ032)

Development Trend Prediction of Patents Technology Thematic of Cloud Computing between China and the United States

ZHANG Biao   DONG Kun   GAO Daobin   WU Hong   

  1. Institute of Information Management, Shandong University of Technology, Zibo 255049, China
  • Online:2023-02-25 Published:2023-03-13

摘要:

云计算是人工智能时代竞争致胜的关键支撑产业,是中美两国必争之地。科学预测中美两国云计算相关技术主题发展态势,对于我国科学规划云计算发展策略、提高竞争实力具有重要意义。本文以中美云计算领域专利为样本数据,首先运用WI-LDA细粒度挖掘各技术主题,其次利用Prophet对各主题发展态势进行建模预测,最后创建主题趋势度和主题热度指标,绘制技术主题空间分布图,解读两国未来发展态势。分析发现:美国在云计算领域整体起步比较早,在故障检测与修复、云安全、混合存储控制装置、内存管理具有较大优势,中国虽起步较晚,但发展迅速,在数字计算中心、信号传输系统、软件模拟、云资源加密、图像数据识别后来居上,发展前景广阔。美国已在云计算大多技术主题占得先机,我国仍需持续建设良好的云计算发展环境,坚持自主可控的发展方向,培养核心竞争力。

关键词: 中美, 云计算, 专利分析, 发展态势, 预测

Abstract:

Cloud computing is the key supporting industry to win the competition in the era of artificial intelligence, and it is a battleground between China and the United States. It is significant for China to scientifically plan its development strategy and improve its competitive strength to scientifically predict the development trend of various technical topics between the two countries. Taking patents in the field of cloud computing in China and the United States as sample data, this paper uses WI-LDA to fine-grained mine technical topics, then uses Prophet to model and predict its development trend. Finally, create topic trend degree and topic heat index, draw the spatial distribution map, and interpret the development trend of the two countries. The United States started early in the field of cloud computing and has more advantages than China in fault detection and repair, cloud security, hybrid storage control device, and memory management. Although China started late in the field of cloud computing, it is developing rapidly. It makes a broad space for development in the digital computing center, signal transmission system, software simulation, cloud resource encryption, image data recognition and other aspects. The United States has taken the lead in most technical topics. China still needs to build a good cloud computing development environment, adhere to the independent and controllable development direction and cultivate core competitiveness.

Key words: China and the United States, Cloud Computing, Patent Analysis, Development Trend, Forecast